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- 获赠鲜花
- 2 朵
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- 100 金币
- 注册时间
- 2006-3-26
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虽然知道离Busiess020 的最后考试还有一段时间。但是贴出来给大家先有个映像,别到考试的时候抱佛脚。我还会陆续贴出History028E的去年考试卷子。, R& r; k4 X X/ N$ U1 V2 @( Y% A
; C# i# g1 [1 b+ n; ~+ ?( b& s; xGM Overview) P) r8 u" B- t9 a* k
• Role, Timing, Issues/Decisions, C&Cs
, ~3 j" G! Z4 R6 D• Objectives* h0 l( A7 l0 \) P
– What do we “WANT” to do?
4 k4 \* V8 a7 s• External Analysis/ r9 O5 F; ^5 e
– What do we “NEED” to do?
& ?7 n, F w) U& a– PEST, Consumer, Competition, Trade9 t2 q2 d3 U) i* P1 n
• opportunities & threats% I) e" Q. M/ Q$ E
– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs7 B# |( v: F( O. b% c5 P! L
• Internal Analysis
/ P& p7 D1 q2 o0 S6 q– What “CAN” we do?
! d3 |- c# W! \0 ^– Finance, Marketing, Ops, HR
; D) K$ C# w5 I/ f& w7 j• abilities, strengths & weaknesses; A3 ?& c' c& Q8 l9 R1 d$ y$ _2 x
– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs, CORPORATE CAPABILITIES
9 q/ k) L* M( L
& Y9 E6 e5 e- F6 s! y• Alternative Evaluation
0 r Z6 y9 X% m; u/ A– What are the options? D$ {1 k) y7 X8 I9 E4 i$ Q
– Evaluate the pros & cons of the options
( a6 T. q9 l: P7 m7 S/ {. K+ d– How does this option “FIT”?4 ~/ A3 B* Y( D: p" {6 \( k
– (you may be able to eliminate options based exclusively on the poor “FIT”qualitatively - if so, make sure you explain why this option was nixed)
) T6 U; C# |5 h– Financial Feasibility (of AT LEAST 2-3 options that might “work”)
: @+ p: y# y( \8 e) m* y; i, W) ]- M* r! ]3 `2 S2 t* e1 |/ W
• Decision0 F6 P6 u2 w' j O
– Justify why you chose a particular option(s).7 _8 h: K n |2 o2 V. V
– YOU SHOULD BE CONVINCING' W9 m, R6 z3 ]5 E8 F* q
• Which strategy best meets the firm’s objectives?
, J8 g# Z- c0 X" C: g0 C5 G• Does it satisfy the personal objectives as well?
& R: ~$ J6 u( w2 c- w7 L3 ~• Have you addressed the cons of the chosen alternative?
2 _3 T/ S' h8 D, {5 k* _• Is this decision consistent with the analysis you’ve done? EXPLAIN! (FITS)
! ?7 H0 e! [. b) n# \• Why NOT the other options?0 O& @: I+ F2 U1 F; o/ p- q
• How does this choice affect Finance, Marketing, Ops and HR? What changes u; u8 A/ s5 J' ?( d
need to be made?7 x" }" h/ W H; ?
/ @- Q1 {! I% W& s4 U• Action Plan' s( E2 K0 { i, L! Y+ m
• Map out a clear and precise implementation plan which includes;
& d* |% S$ z& W2 H* w4 z3 u5 j) Z– details which address what steps you have to take to implement your4 {5 k. c ^& E- C
decision6 x) v" r- `4 R+ \/ |
– details about timing
. ~0 I8 R% C1 e: h5 r( V6 G– details about WHO will be responsible for accomplishing the ‘task’4 T5 Y7 T8 ], p# u
– how will you follow-up your plan (measure success): Y0 I* D' o' p; D9 a0 w; i b
– make sure to consider both the short term and long term8 d1 |7 P! E$ b" `) X- x% I7 W2 a
S4 k, ], H) \+ V5 s0 WFirm Valuation7 R7 U3 j+ n. R0 g
• Used to help managers determine the “price” of a company.9 y0 u, ~' }. C9 T5 ~
• 3 methods of valuing a firm;
& Z/ c: a) p% F0 @5 x# J– Net Book Value8 |/ u2 r) h$ h. q8 ]2 c2 N. {; \: X
– Economic Appraisal# }) m m) b9 W/ u# ]# l1 Y. V
– Capitalization of Earnings
4 x! v, S; T9 t5 t) p9 {• Using all 3 methods (if possible) helps us to determine a RANGE of what the
& F& `' s3 m; l2 U7 R8 \company is worth.6 {, [" ~2 G& U4 V
• THINK!!! What are you really selling? Will anyone pay for it? How much will they pay???# [! @2 y9 ?- k. |' Z5 x
8 c7 v1 v- m- O4 y5 m( H; p3 \ Net Book Value (NBV)5 O+ [- r/ D6 {3 z9 b
– Total Assets - Total Liabilities
, ^+ H; L7 D. j3 p/ [• a.k.a.. the equity
2 }4 ` i8 k# [, k– Does not account for the present market value of the assets* J* u- e% W5 E; w* K
– Calculated using the most recent given balance sheet2 v$ N% L7 _5 ]1 Y# ]% P: u# n+ f
– Preferred method for banks, creditors, and/or buyers who are interested in selling off the assets of the business; z8 ~1 T. o4 |5 j6 h, w6 X
1 [. q' T; P9 I8 J( B. f- M9 C' G' D
Economic Appraisal (EA)
* c2 j3 y& [' F s9 C, c$ m– Similar to NBV, but tries to reflect the current market value of the assets
N5 P$ R, I3 X; O4 l+ [5 ]3 a% A, U– Total Appraised Assets – Total Liabilities
4 ~& Z' \ G4 {" F- ~6 e" @– Preferred by buyers who are interested in a company for its assets* ?$ \/ e0 ]0 k4 C8 L/ g% P
% p# K) |; l( D% u( V* r/ t
Capitalization of Earnings (CE)
& _( y: j7 j0 a, V8 ?. W– Focuses on the I/S instead of the B/S% }, ^( Z( @8 r" j$ H! V! ~
• Attempt to value the company in terms of the future income it may provide.
$ p2 q# N: s3 C$ A( u3 f. J– NPAT * P/E ratio = value: _# b3 d( x4 j3 s7 L
– Must evaluate two different earnings figures (to determine risk & range)
, t. ]4 P6 A( g' e% i• Assuming changes (projected statement), }. ?* t, G# @/ Z% u/ Q
• Assuming no changes (current given I/S)9 \3 }: C! G0 Q- b3 }+ G
– Select a reasonable P/E multiple
$ f) k0 ?) o# E– Preferred by buyers interested in the ongoing operation of the company (i.e.taking over as management)( ]1 P1 S9 o; N) p5 ]
+ \, V8 G6 A& R
• P/E Multiple
; j+ ^1 Q6 b5 a- W$ }– Rules of thumb;
# q% V) N- v6 f6 R• Mature industries with stable earnings tend to have multiples
1 c$ \( w7 \. y+ pfrom 5 to 15.
: i- g6 E- c! e1 R- ^! U2 J) o• High growth industries tend to have multiples exceeding 20.
1 @9 E& i% [, O4 p! y• “Growth is good; risk is rotten!”# i' X% A0 V! h" X7 q9 @) b* s
– growth increases a multiple
0 @7 i- e6 p5 }% [4 {– risk decreases a multiple
' J. @: \6 S3 z! `6 V, `
* T, h7 k. l4 A* q* z9 j UTheir Associated Ratios
& g# _8 ~$ Z" m5 a M& t7 R• Profitability;
- Y& R I+ r, v& L. x$ E9 l– Business goal - to make $$
8 O( m$ l6 A7 f( [8 X+ x– Ratios measures how much money we had to spend to make $X in sales
8 i" z, s+ x6 _$ K; ^' x& N• Stability;% {7 v! q$ a8 V8 B1 a
– Business goal - to have a stable financial structure (balance its ownership of assets with debt and equity)
0 I5 A" h- I9 p( \– Ratios measure the firm’s means of financing assets and ability to pay interest on debts0 o! w. q6 C* _- C7 |9 H
: [4 [5 l x6 A+ l1 o/ O* n5 Financial Goals &Their Associated Ratios2 q3 s# g! M, E5 f' Y
• Liquidity;/ x5 \9 O) A6 ^2 s3 E
– Business goal - ability to meet s-t obligations
& W; h4 j! Z8 d5 ]% O3 x– Ratios measure how liquid the firm is (how able the firm is to pay its shortterm6 ]- n- m5 y; w! Y' g
obligations)
) O2 A, ]) |: i5 g0 N• Efficiency;
: ^3 _* [, b$ J" a# G7 p– Business goal - to efficiently use assets9 J& _! G5 e1 O
– Ratios tell us how efficiently we are using our investments
' y4 t+ v$ U i( t
, l* d1 p5 S4 E• Growth;- q2 X6 ]) p( ^
– Business goal - to increase in size1 X; D! W! o+ L7 F1 B' @
– Ratios tell us whether the company is achieving any growth3 Q$ c1 _# v. G5 y8 d
! C$ Y. H9 }. K1 H
Interpreting the Ratios
% g7 n- K- L9 V- u+ q• Profitability;, Q$ u6 K v. D5 P, r5 D
– Vertical Analysis (of I/S)
; @. G% `& ~" m5 S, \I/S items * 100 = %
" ]' Y" I# I% i" M+ t$ q1 Q" F Sales
' w& P' O; [7 Q q4 e1 [• Tells us it cost us X% of sales to make those sales
3 K3 [6 j" k. \– Return on Investment/Equity) N" K) v, H( r a# `
Profit ATB4D = % ; D( |+ y) x$ Z/ [: ^+ V' b
Average Equity4 `5 K: O1 y; m
[(Yr. 1 E + Yr. 2 E)/2] K- d! z' f. s! ^' h3 ^1 V/ `) p
• Tells us how much profit we made relative to the investment made by the owners, P5 C$ v" x" }; ^5 S9 B
* J* c ^3 i2 P• Stability;0 `% Y' @) |; h: T! I, z, s* P Y
– Net Worth: Total Assets
' I$ E* J9 ~, mTotal Equity = % 7 J. c4 b/ E/ `* h3 J, o. V. Y
Total Assets
/ }" G7 J) I2 H& L, G8 _/ K• tells us what % of assets were financed through owner’s money
& X3 \/ Y- Q% N9 K, b9 w2 X, g– Debt to Assets
& E0 q1 [3 T- f* d) `Total Debt = % ' c' c' F) V- l1 O
Total Assets
s4 d8 V& C3 C) u• Tells us what % of the assets were financed through debt
+ o0 m8 Y& K& G! o; y– Interest Coverage, G. x$ v/ t* G. l4 N& L$ L2 k
EBIT = # times; h, w& m2 D. _9 m; A) d) j
Interest Expense
! f0 _5 a! W( X8 j$ d7 V# j• tells us how many times we can pay interest
( ]3 }; K# I/ f% t; k3 m0 y# G, L. S: X1 t+ f4 q$ y
• Liquidity;3 I: F& u5 W; Y5 Q8 @- W- D4 q" D" v
– Current Ratio
* r8 R( u! T7 O. jCurrent Assets = X:1
4 V, M2 A& C) O8 M$ @0 ?7 G$ H+ _Current Liabilities/ D. @' x0 A, w9 g& A8 _
• Tells us, if we liquidated all our current assets, how many times we can pay our debts4 E2 f! p4 b8 v4 t9 g3 }
RULE OF THUMB: 2:1
. x- ?4 u9 }) k. q$ ~0 Q– Acid Test/ ^. F: e$ J$ }( o
Cash + M/S + A/R = X:12 q; s1 u; O+ R, j; O6 n
Current Liabilities) ?. y: Q0 v- U& V1 o3 ?
• Tells us how many times we can pay our debts with the money easily available to us
# z! r, r$ b7 Q9 J+ ERULE OF THUMB: 1:1
$ _" [4 s2 }1 @+ ?, p
# J$ P4 e, ]3 J% {% Y. z– Working Capital
x% t c' ?0 }0 ?- K' UC.A - C.L = $X
: B; T# J, T, }+ l& U• Tells us how much money we have to work with AFTER s-t debts are paid
" h4 K! @) f* p3 z7 u( F: X; x
1 \: ?9 P; Y$ d; j: |Efficiency;* ]0 e: x2 A- Q! p- o4 g8 V
– Age of Receivables3 W8 o8 B2 O5 E
Accounts Receivabl = # Days
0 U \' f4 K) b' {" o: f; M (Sales / 365)
- @- S! u* r9 l9 @, K4 l• Tells us how long it takes us to collect our $$
: r- ]( n- n0 C2 L7 P; R+ T7 X1 A/ w, U: b# C
– Age Of Payables: Z7 X6 K d; p3 ^! B5 h
Accounts Payable = # Days9 R$ Z% Z7 L3 h* g0 r0 K
(Purchases* / 365)/ Y# k) t+ }0 S5 q
• Tells us how long it takes us to pay our bills
5 j E g Y' J
: o0 n$ V# N( O" _– Age of Inventory- [4 e+ ?* @$ U& c0 {+ |1 T& [
Inventory = # Days0 S3 |3 Q. }0 |. o
(COGS / 365)
' \2 Y, X. y' R! G& _0 y5 c5 D" N• Tells us how long we are holding on to our inventory in the warehouse) C, O" q7 Y/ W' _7 u
( T$ s* t2 i" `: Y+ @
• Growth;
, o0 i" V- t: \9 q– Sales& q5 m1 ~) b% l' D3 A
– Net Income
2 o% e9 I) P# E0 T# _/ B- Z' T– Total Assets
. G: ]* t+ v- L( ?0 p2 ?– Equity9 h& h. N( f: T! C2 `
Yr. 2 - Yr. 1 = %; r# D# o4 q) z# `2 C1 e) v" `# f/ L
Yr. 1
* q: @0 u1 R% x! A• Tells us whether the accounts are growing (and hence the company)% B N+ v6 g9 f! g% B8 H- ]0 P% \+ X
9 l$ d( T& a8 t$ y6 H8 o5 o' hUnderstanding Ratios
" [# o9 D1 j$ H! H: Q E• DO NOT CONCLUDE THAT “THE RATIO IS GOOD/BAD”" r T/ H) @0 }' r6 v! c
• Either the NUMERATOR or the DENOMINATOR affects the ratio
( M" ?* K# K% X9 I& P# L• Ask yourself: “WHY HAS THE RATIO CHANGED & WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?”/ g8 |' S# n: M
– Which number caused the change?
0 n* h0 @. l& V% ~$ k. H– Look for increasing or decreasing trends over time.
. n, }& w$ E( B! \! }– Will these trends continue?9 ?8 P4 y. S6 x- M1 P' z/ D
– How does the company compare to the industry?) a' f4 p, g4 N' G5 j9 G
1 V+ c, Z$ \( U3 [- n
2 J) c+ q, U9 X+ P# t* G. QClassifying Costs: K* D. w9 a5 p3 O9 ^
• Variable Costs
/ q) H% \: T+ ]8 t; {) O– a cost incurred with every unit sold/produced (volume) P: [9 |/ m' Q* Z2 l
• Fixed Costs
5 e. q1 D' r6 \1 d6 V6 K9 N– cost that does not vary with volume |
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